As summer draws to a close and schools begin to contemplate reopening during this whirlwind of a year, a single question is on the minds of politicians, administrators, teachers, parents, and students—is it safe to go back to school?
COVID-19 has turned the world on its head to the point that even something as seemingly routine as the school has become a matter of potential life or death. Weighing the benefits of education, development, and livelihood against the risks associated with this still somewhat mysterious virus has never been more difficult.
With schools closing early in March and the Fall season upon us, the dilemma is present and real. With this quandary in mind, researchers decided to attempt to determine the correlation between statewide school closures and the incidence and potential mortality associated with COVID-19.
No, we’re not referring to the dreaded SAT or other educational evaluation tools. Rather, we are talking about the methods implemented to study the potential correlation between nonpharmaceutical COVID-19 interventions, such as closing schools, and the reduction in the spread of said illness.
To study this link, researchers conducted an observational study in the United States between the dates of March 9 and May 7, 2020. Using models, researchers attempted to estimate the differences between educational institutions that closed and those that remained open in relation to the number of COVID-19 cases and related deaths.
The outcomes being measured were the daily incidence of COVID-19, as well as mortality related to the virus per 100,000 residents.
A correlation was found between school closer and a decline in incidence and mortality. The adjusted relative changes were -62% and -58%, respectively. Based upon these findings, a model estimated that closing schools during the lowest quartile of cumulative incidence of COVID-19 when compared to the highest quartile was linked to 128.7 fewer cases over 26 days and 1.5 fewer deaths over 16 days (per 100,000 population).
It can be assumed, then, that closing schools statewide was related to lower occurrences of COVID-19 incidence and mortality. However, it should be noted that other nonpharmaceutical interventions were also implemented around this time and could have contributed to the findings of this study.
In other words, while a strong correlation was discovered between school closures and a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, other factors could have contributed heavily to this reduction, making the findings about school closures questionable.
This post was last modified on November 4, 2020 8:19 am
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